Alternative indices, honest backtests, and heterodox signals — for people who notice when the official numbers don't match the receipts. Built by someone who reads the footnotes of the footnotes.
The world repriced in USD. Each country colored by its largest single-country equity ETF's year-to-date total return — or, flip the switch, by the prevailing 10-year sovereign yield. Most financial TV shows you the S&P. This is the actual battlefield.
Each one exists because the official version of the story left something out. Live reports are linked below. Anything marked DRAFT is in the pipeline.
The USD cost of giving every living human on Earth one single-serve Coca-Cola. Repriced every December 25 since 1971. Captures monetary debasement, population growth, and purchasing-power convergence in one absurd number.
M2 is up ~3,400% since 1971. Official CPI is up ~700%. The gap between what the money supply did and what the government says prices did — that's where the newly-printed dollars went. Tracks four tiers monthly.
Adversarial audit of a breadth signal I almost published. Twelve-point checklist covering look-ahead bias, survivorship, p-hacking, baseline comparison, and event clustering. Teaches how quants fool themselves — including me.
"SPY down 5% in 3 days → buy." Grid-tested across 32 years of daily data. Beats most fancy signals with no breadth, no volume, no macro inputs. The simple thing works. The Ivy League isn't beating this.
The gap between industrial capacity utilization and capex as a share of output. When capex underinvests for a decade and utilization creeps high, commodities rip 2–3 years later. A quiet, slow, ugly signal. Back to 1962.
If you have data and a heterodox thesis nobody else has built, pitch it. Submission guide ships with the manifesto. No paywalled priors, no institutional hedging.
CPI substitutes and smooths. GDP deflators rebalance quietly. The published unemployment rate stopped counting people who gave up looking. None of this is conspiracy — it's methodology drift, and it compounds. What's left after a few decades is a macro picture that reads cleaner than your receipts.
Every index here has to clear one bar: does it measure something the official version obscures? If yes, we build it. If no, we don't. No perma-bear LARPing, no gold-bug mysticism. Just honest alternative arithmetic.
"87% hit rate" sounds great until you check that SPY's unconditional 12-month hit rate is 82%. Lift above baseline is what matters. Anything published here shows its baseline, its confidence interval, and the dates it fired. If the numbers don't clear, we say so.
No subscriptions, no tiered access, no "premium tier." The data, the code, the methodology, and the failures are all on the table. If you use something here, tell me what broke. That's the whole deal.
No ads. No affiliate links. No data resale. No paywalled tier. No newsletter sponsor reads. No hedge-fund client list. No gold-bug course. U.S. domestic. No foreign ties. No donors to serve. We live to serve the cause: a clear-eyed look at the economy, done in a way that's fun-but-useful. If the work here is worth something to you, a small Bitcoin donation keeps the servers running and the data pipelines fed.
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For small tips — coffee money, under roughly $20. Instant confirmation, no on-chain fee. Opens once the Lightning node has sufficient inbound liquidity.
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Roughly one email per month when a new index goes live. No spam, no referrals, no "5 stocks my broker loves." Just the report and the data.